The Trump Election has happened. We will not spend any ink on how it happened here. Instead, we will look at how the Komprenio exchange reacted to the election. Komprenio is essentially in demo stage, and this week's drama is the our backdrop.
Right before Election Day, the Trump dividi was trading around 80. That implied a 15% chance of holding the White House for four years. The Clinton dividi was at around 100, implying around 85% chance of winning. These numbers matched what the "experts" were saying at the time. As the data came in on Tuesday, Komprenio members reacted quickly. Trump surged to almost 700, pricing in the now secure four years of power. The Clinton dividi, with no apparent alternative career paths in American politics for Clinton, collapse to a price of one specio per dividi.
The vice presidential dividis reacted accordingly, but note that the Kaine dividi did not drop as much as the Clinton one; he is down, but not out. Kaine now trades at 12, which is a fair price of you think that he will, for example, secure a Senate seat in 2020 and hold it for two terms.
We put in the newcomer Kamala Harris as an example of dividis with a lower profile today but potential (in the eyes of some people) for more prominence in the future. Before the election, the Harris dividi reflected her solid odds to win a Senate seat; it was at almost 100. She did win, but since that was anticipated, the dividi price did not move much. It is now at 102, with a 5% gain over Election Day. She is now priced for one six year term in the Senate. If you think she will do more or climb higher, this is a buying opportunity.
Our first post on this blog was called "You Cannot Predict the Future". This week that was nicely illustrated. But you still have to try to at least understand what is happening right now. And try to see where that is taking us. Komprenio is not about discrete win/lose events. It is built to handle the subtle and gradual shifts, perceived (or imagined) by our members. Some people now expect some none-too-subtle shifts in the future of American power. Stay tuned.